DS6 Level of Housing Growth

Showing comments and forms 61 to 89 of 89

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66352

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Miss Emma Bromley

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The proposed level of housing is too high and is based on unreliable evidence. New ONS forecasts suggest a lower level of population growth for the District than is being planned for. WDC have used a very low average household size to ensure a higher housing requirement. The census shows a much higher household size than WDC have used. The publication draft is no longer up to date.

All authorities within the HMA are showing similar reductions in projected population growth, including Coventry if you allow for the temporary student bulge. A lower housing target combined with use of brownfield sites would mean greenfield sites would only be included where a essential.
A lower housing target would help to resolve the issue with the 5 year supply of housing and infrastructure provision would be easier to resolve

There is already a 5 year supply in the District which means application can be resisted until the Local Plan process has run its course.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66356

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Mr & Mrs Peter & Linda Bromley

Number of people: 2

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The proposed level of housing is too high and is based on unreliable evidence. New ONS forecasts suggest a lower level of population growth for the District than is being planned for. WDC have used a very low average household size to ensure a higher housing requirement. The census shows a much higher household size than WDC have used. The publication draft is no longer up to date.

All authorities within the HMA are showing similar reductions in projected population growth, including Coventry if you allow for the temporary student bulge. A lower housing target combined with use of brownfield sites would mean greenfield sites would only be included where a essential.
A lower housing target would help to resolve the issue with the 5 year supply of housing and infrastructure provision would be easier to resolve

Full text:

See attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66365

Received: 25/06/2014

Respondent: The Leamington Society

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The population projections on which the plan is based are out of date. The 2012 ONS projections show a lower population growth. This is also true for most neighbouring districts with the exception of Coventry. If WDC continue with their plans to build homes, this will mean the homes are built in the wrong place.

Projections in population growth in Coventry are uncertain due to volatile inward migration from abroad. The ONS figures for Coventry represent 1.2% increase per year which implausibly large in comparison with national picture and other cities. This should not therefore be used to justify building homes in Warwick.

The latest ONs projections provide the best basis for the Local Plan, however these demonstrate that the Plan is unsound as they indicate the population is projected to be over 6000 fewer than those on which the Plan is based.
The need for additional homes is sensitive to average household size. The Plan assumes 2.181 by 2029 on the basis that the trend will decrease. However the are conflicting possible trends and this trend is not supported by the 2001 and 2011 census data.
12,860 is therefore an excessive figure and even if the ave. household size is 2.181 this is 2760 more dwellings than are needed.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66376

Received: 23/06/2014

Respondent: Mrs Elaine Kemp

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The housing taregt is based on poor quality data. Alternative assessments have indicated a requirement of around 5500. Given pressure from developers it would be prudent to go for the lower figure. This could be revised upwards should the need be proven. the recent ONs projections show a lower level of growth than had previously been indicated. this indicates the difficulty in makiing predictions and therefore the data should be applied cautiously.

The proposals will lead to increased congestion, loss of countryside, burden on infrastructure and a fundamental change to the character of the area. It will do nothing to better the lives of present or future generations.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66385

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Warwick Town Council

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

A housing need of almost 13,000 homes, has not been justified, for the latest ONS projections demonstrate that the Draft local Plan is based upon projections within the JSHMA which are entirely suspect.

The population projection from ONS is 28.7% below the JSHMA and the apparent arbitrary figure of 1.661 persons per household is also incorrect, for household numbers have not reduced from the 2.294 household figures, in the 2011 census.

The District Council's determination to go for growth does not meet local needs, but seeks to maximise future financial advantage for the Council, no matter how important local green fields are to the local community.

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66393

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Cllr Elizabeth Higgins

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

Housing need forecast of 12,900 is exaggerated.

There is a 30% drop in the expected numbers of people and, therefore, houses, needed over the next 20 years.

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66412

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Hazel and Robin Fryer

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

The level of housing growth is based on an arbitrary selection of growth predictions which have now been shown to be not justified by the latest ONS projections. The local plan needs to be revised downward to be sound. The statement that the Council may wish to revise the figures upwards to accomodate the overspill from other areas undermines the local plan process. The duty to cooperate across the districts does not stipulate that the area must sacrifice its environment to satisfy its neighbours. The omission of the green belt at Thickthorn must be justified by demonstrating exceptional circumstances. The insensitive zoning approach to this intrusion into the green belt should be revised to a more environmentally sensitive approach.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66419

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Sharba Homes Group

Agent: PJPlanning

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The document is based on an estimated requirement for 12,300 dwellings over the plan period. The latest SHMA puts the assessed requirement at 14,400, meaning that the residual need is 8,722 rather than 6,622. the plan does not therefore meet the full and objectively assessed need.

The Council appear to have made assumptions and assertions about where they feel it is appropriate to locate housing within the district, as well as the level of housing to be provided, before carrying out the relevant assessments with an open mind to reach such a conclusion. Thus, the process has begun from entirely the wrong premise and is based on evidence that is partial, inaccurate and subjective.

Full text:

Please see the attached representation submitted by PJ Planning on behalf of Sharba Homes Group

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66431

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Ms Myra Styles

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

Housing numbers are unsound and based on out of date data

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66440

Received: 25/06/2014

Respondent: Mr Robert Cochrane

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

Housing numbers are unsound and based on out of date data

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66474

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Friends of the Earth

Number of people: 4

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

We object to these proposed policies because of the figures of new homes proposed. The proposals need to be revised to take into account the ONS '2012-based Subnational Population Projections for England' which were released on 29 May 2014.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66475

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Friends of the Earth

Number of people: 4

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

We object to these proposed policies because of the figures of new homes proposed. The proposals need to be revised to take into account the ONS '2012-based Subnational Population Projections for England' which were released on 29 May 2014.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66543

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Taylor Wimpey

Agent: Barton Willmore

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? Not specified

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

Council have set out a housing requirement of 12,860 dwellings over the period 2011-2029 (714 dpa). Please find enclosed with our representations at Appendix 2 the Coventry Sub-Regional Housing Study, as produced by Barton Willmore. This study provides an up-to-date position including reference to the May 2014, 2012 Sub National Population Projections (SNPP).
This document has been prepared on behalf of a consortium of developers with land interests across the West Midlands, including within the Coventry and Warwickshire Sub-Region. Whilst not wishing to repeat this document in full, there are some key points which it is appropriate to emphasise within this letter.
The minimum recommended target for Warwick District is 900 dpa, as part of a requirement of 5,100 dpa across the HMA. We also note that this doesn't include any dwellings required to be delivered by the Coventry HMA authorities as part of Birmingham's housing needs; which Barton Willmore have previously forecast at between 61 and 195 dwellings per annum for North Warwickshire and between 110 and 387 dwellings per annum for Stratford-on-Avon as part of the Birmingham sub-Regional Housing Study. Whilst this does not directly impact on Warwick District, the additional pressures placed on other authorities within the Coventry HMA will inevitably have some impact on the need for cooperation.
In order to meet what we consider to be the minimum requirement there will need to be an increase of 186 dpa in Warwick District and an increase of 1,300 dpa across the HMA against the 'Assessed Need' in Table 97 of the Coventry and Warwickshire SHMA.
The increase to this dwelling target will assist the Council in complying with the NPPF and PPG by enabling:
- Demographic need to be met;
- Forecasted economic growth to be accommodated;
- Sufficient affordable housing to be supplied; and
- A significant contribution made towards addressing the adverse market signals.
Significantly we consider that this increased housing need provides the exceptional circumstances required to justify the release of additional housing allocations.
Significantly we consider that this increased housing need provides the circumstances required to justify the release of additional housing allocations.

Full text:

See attached

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66561

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: CPRE WARWICKSHIRE

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

OAN is not a sound or justified figure. See reps relating to DS6.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66574

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: CPRE WARWICKSHIRE

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

Net in-migration fell from a figure of over 2,000 per annum in the years immediately following the millennium to 400 in 2008-9 and net out-migration of 700 in 2009-10. In view of this dramatic change it is not acceptable, as the 2012 SHMAA did, to take the 460 average and simply project it forward over the plan period. There is a real possibility that there will be net out-migration from rather than in-migration to the district over the plan period. The past rate of growth of population and in-migration is unsustainable. the District Council should be planning for a very much lower level of growth in which housing and employment are balanced against environmental objectives.

The SHMAs cannot claim to have been an objective assessment of housing need. The work was commissioned by local authorities and the steering committees were dominated by development interests who have a vested interest in talking up the housing needs figures. Wider interests such as residents' groups and environmental bodies were excluded from the process. WDC have assumed population growth of 17% between 2011 and 2029. This rate of growth would be above that for almost all the SHMA Projection Scenarios, despite the plan period being two years shorter than that of the SHMA. No justification is provided in the Plan for the choice of this figure. Employment forecasts are subject to great uncertainty and cannot be reliably used.

The proposal for 12860 houses is not justified in the text. The Plan is therefore unsound in its provision for housing.

The Plan does jot take account of the latest ONS population projections, which shows a much lower rate of population growth than assumed in the JSHMA. This could suggest a reduction in the housing requirement of about 3700 homes. Further average household has recently stablilised, but the plan assumes continued reductions.

Taking all these factors into account, we consider that the Plan is unsound because its housing provision is based on out-of-date information and on an over-optimistic, inflated view of both employment and population growth prospects.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66586

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Catesby Property Group

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

We support the Council in seeking to meet its objectively assessed need for new market and affordable housing, however the CWSHMA indicates that the overall assessed need for Warwick District amounts to 720 dwellings per annum over the period 2011 - 2031, equivalent to 12,960 for the period 2011- 2029. In light of this, we would query why the draft Plan proposes a lower requirement of 714 dwellings per annum.
The Plan is unlikely to progress to adoption until mid-2015, at best, and given this we would suggest that the Council extends the Plan period to 2031 so that it aligns with the CWSHMA, as the relevant evidence base, and more importantly, ensures that the Plan will have a 15-year life span in accordance with paragraph 157 of the NPPF.

Full text:

These representations are submitted on behalf of Cates by Estates Ltd and Kenilworth Wardens Cricket Club, in respect of their land interests at Kenilworth Wardens Sports Club, Glasshouse Lane, Kenilworth. Catesby Estates Limited was formed in 1996 (part of the Catesby Property group PLC) and specialises in the promotion of land through the planning system for sustainable residential and commercial development.

The land available extends to approximately 5 hectares and currently comprises a pavilion building with associated parking and access from Glasshouse Lane, together with part of Glasshouse Wood and the sports pitches. The land is broadly bounded by residential development to the north and the A46 and Kenilworth Rugby Club to the south. The land is currently identified as being within the Greenbelt, however it has been allocated for residential development, as part of a larger allocation at Thickthorn (H06), in the Publication Draft Local Plan.

We have reviewed the Publication Draft Local Plan and would offer the following comments. We confirm that we would wish to attend the Examination in Public to discuss the content of these representations and any other relevant topics.

Duty to Cooperate and Strategic Planning
We note that the Publication Draft Plan confirms that the Council has worked cooperatively with a range of organisations in the region and sub-region in respect of cross boundary, strategic issues. This extends to the Evidence Base and the Coventry and Warwickshire SHMA (CWSHMA) is of particular importance to the overall strategy of the Plan and the quantum of housing to be delivered within each district in the sub-region.

The draft Plan goes on to confirm that each of the authorities within the sub-region are at a different stage in preparing plans and, as a result, the capacity of the other districts to deliver their full objectively assessed housing requirement in full is not known. Whilst we recognise the difficulties involved with multiple authorities seeking to work together on strategic issues, we are particularly concerned in respect of Coventry City Council's ability to meet its full objectively assessed needs within its own administrative boundaries and the likely knock on effect for Warwick District, resulting in the need to identify additional sites for development. There is a risk therefore that the Plan is not positively prepared in that it does not make an allowance (without a further review of the Plan) for accommodating unmet needs from neighbouring authorities.

DS6 Level of Housing Growth
We note that the Council will provide for 12,860 new homes between 2011 and 2029. Paragraph 2.20 of the draft Plan makes reference to the CWSHMA and that Warwick District aims to meet its objectively assessed need. We support the Council in seeking to meet its objectively assessed need for new market and affordable housing, however the CWSHMA indicates that the overall assessed need for Warwick District amounts to 720 dwellings per annum over the period 2011 - 2031, equivalent to 12,960 for the period 2011- 2029. In light of this, we would query why the draft Plan proposes a lower requirement of 714 dwellings per annum.
The Plan is unlikely to progress to adoption until mid-201S, at best, and given this we would suggest that the Council extends the Plan period to 2031 so that it aligns with the CWSHMA, as the relevant evidence base, and more importantly, ensures that the Plan will have a 1S-year life span in accordance with paragraph 1S7 of the NPPF.

In view of the above, and in order to ensure that the Plan is consistent with national policy, we would recommend that the plan period is extended to cover the period 2011 - 2031, and consequently in order to ensure that the Plan is positively prepared and justified the draft Policy DS6 should be amended to increase the housing requirement to at least 14,400 (720 dwellings per annum).
Paragraph 4.12 of the draft Plan makes it clear that there is a serious affordability problem in Warwick District and paragraph 4.13 goes on to confirm that delivering 268 affordable homes per annum is challenging and that a large proportion will need to be provided on private development sites. Given that the primary route for the delivery of affordable housing is via private development sites, consideration should also be given to further increasing the overall housing requirement as a leaver to secure the delivery of more affordable housing.

DS7 Meeting the Housing Requirement
Draft Policy DS7 sets out the various categories from which the overall housing requirement will be delivered. We note that the breakdown includes sites with planning permission at 1st April 2013 and sites with planning permission granted between 1st April 2013 and 31st December 2013. It is not clear from the supporting text, and we would therefore query, whether any discount has been applied to this figure or whether there is an assumption that all of the sites with planning permission will be delivered in full within the plan period . It would be normal practice to apply a 10% reduction to committed sites for non-implementation and to ensure robustness.

We note that there is a substantial allowance for deliveries from windfalls, small urban sites assessed in the SHLAA and a consolidation of existing employment areas. We would query whether there is any 'double-counting' of sites and how robust including a windfall allowance is if allowances are being included for small SHLAA sites and the consolidation of existing employment sites, given that these categories are likely to make up a large proportion of what would normally be regarded as windfall sites.

In this respect, we are concerned that the Plan may not be effective in that it does not ensure the delivery of the full housing requirement within the Plan period .

DS11 Allocated Housing Sites

We support the identification of land at the Kenilworth Sports Club, Glasshouse Lane as part of the draft allocation for residential development at Thickthorn (H06). We confirm that the land is available for development and that there are no substantial constraints which would prevent the land coming forward in the short term.

We can confirm that Kenilworth Wardens Cricket Club Ltd is in advanced discussions in respect of relocating the sports facilities to Castle Farm and at the same time acquiring further land from the adjoining landowner to extend and improve the range of sports facilities available. This would remove the principle constraint to development, by ensuring the transfer of the sports facilities to the Castle Farm site. The transfer would also secure an extension and improvement of the sports facilities thus providing additional benefits to the wider community.
We are mindful that the land has been assessed by the Council in the 2014 and it is considered potentially suitable. Having considered the potential constraints to development, we are conscious that the extent of land available would allow significant landscape buffers to be introduced to both the A46 to the south, in order to protect occupiers from potential noise disturbance, and to Glasshouse Wood to the north, in order to protect the integrity of the Scheduled Ancient Monument
and the Ancient Woodland.

Initial feasibility work suggests that approximately 3 hectares of net developable land could be available on land controlled by Catesby Estates and Kenilworth Wardens, which could accommodate between 90 - 100 dwellings together with associated open space, landscaping, access arrangements and sustainable drainage features. Whilst we recognise that the site forms part of a larger allocation for residential development, and therefore there is an expectation that there will be a comprehensive masterplanning exercise to include the balance of the Thickthorn site, we confirm that the site could come forward for development individually if required.

Access to the site can be provided from Glasshouse Lane and the extent of frontage to Glasshouse Lane provides flexibility in the location of the access point to ensure that the necessary visibility splays can be achieved. Whilst this would result in the removal of hedgerow and trees, this would be kept to a minimum and would make use of existing breaks and gaps where appropriate. Any new development could incorporate walking and cycling links to the existing residential development to the north, improving the sustainability of the site and providing alternative modes of travel.

The site is currently identified as being within the Green Belt, however we do not consider that the site makes a positive contribution to the purposes of the Green Belt. We are aware of the conclusions drawn in the 2009 Green Belt Review, and it is our view that the A46 acts as a defensible barrier to the south east and prevents the unrestricted sprawl of Kenilworth. In addition, the A46 also acts as a barrier to the wider countryside and prevents development from encroaching in to the countryside. In light of this, and very limited availability of non-Green Belt land within the District, we consider that it is entirely appropriate to remove the land at Tickthorn from the Green Belt for and to allocate it for residential development.

H2 Affordable Housing
In general terms we support draft Policy H2 which seeks to secure affordable housing as part of new development. In particular, we support the recognition that the location and means of delivery will be the subject of negotiation and will account of site specific factors such as viability, in accordance with paragraphs 173 and 174 of the NPPF. We would also support a policy which provides flexibility in terms of the sizes, types and tenures of affordable homes provided and which does not seek to set out a prescribed mix. The affordable housing mix needs to respond to the evolving requirements of Registered Providers and allow for flexibility to assist with delivery to meet housing need and align with their funding constraints.

H4 Securing a Mix of Housing
We welcome the flexibility in the wording of this policy and would recommend that it is not amended to include the specific percentage splits. The NPPF seeks to ensure that a wide choice of high quality homes are provided and requires local planning authorities to "plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community" (paragraph 50, bullet 1). It therefore recognises the importance of allowing flexibility to adapt to market trends through development. As drafted, the policy would provide the flexibility to ensure the Plan remains consistent with paragraph 50 of the NPPF over the course of the plan period.

CC3 Building Standards Requirement
We object to the inclusion of a policy which requires all new dwellings to be constructed to meet the requirements of the Code for Sustainable Homes. The Code for Sustainable Homes (CfSH) was introduced in 2007 and, whilst at the present time remains the national standard for the sustainable design and construction of new homes in England and Wales, there are some imminent changes which are likely to render such a policy out of date.

Following the publication of the Harman Review into local housing standards in 2012 a Technical Housing Standards Review Group was established to look into existing sustainability standards applied to new housing, including the Code for Sustainable Homes. In August 2013 the Government published the Housing Standards Review Consultation in relation to the rationalisation of the framework of building regulations and local housing standards. The overall aim of this policy is to prevent local and national housing standards being unnecessarily complex and overlapping or contradicting each other, or parts of the Building Regulations. With regard to the Code for Sustainable Homes, the Government proposed to wind down the role of the Code.

In March 2014 the Government announced the results of the consultation and issued a Ministerial Letter outlining proposals for simplification of residential sustainabi lity standards. This involves consolidating requirements into the Building Regulations with amendments to the Planning and energy Act 2008 to remove local authority's ability to set energy standards above Building Regulations. The announcement confirmed the Government's intention to wind down the Code.

In light of the above, any policy which seeks to control the sustainable design and construction of homes by reference to the Code for Sustainable Homes, will both be quickly out of date and a repetition of the requirements of Building Regulations. Policy CC3 should therefore be deleted from the Local Plan.

We trust that these representations will be considered by the Council and look forward to being kept informed of the progression of the Local Plan. We would be pleased to meet with Officers to discuss the content of our representations and the delivery of residential development on land at Glasshouse Lane and would propose to contact you shortly in this regard . In the meantime, please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any queries.

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66607

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Richborough Estates Ltd

Agent: Strutt & Parker

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

If the LPA is to provide in full for its objectively assessed housing need - as it says it will in Strategic Policy DS2 - then Policy DS6 needs to be amended to read as a minimum 12,960 new homes. Table 97 contained within the Coventry and Warwickshire Joint Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report, November 2013 identifies the assessed housing need for Warwick District as being 720 dwellings per annum. 720 dwellings per annum over the identified 18 year Plan period (2011-2029) equates to 12,960 dwellings not 12,860 dwellings.

Full text:

see attached

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66698

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Barwood Strategic Land II Limited

Agent: HOW Planning LLP

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The policy confirms that the Council is planning to provide for 12,860 new homes between 2011 and 2029. Barwood raise strong objection to this policy. In the first instance Barwood object to the Council setting a definitive target for housing growth.

Warwick may have to provide housing growth for the wider HMA and until the LPAs have fully assessed whether they are capable of delivering the required growth, Warwick cannot definitively state that they are planning for their full objectively assessed housing needs. Barwood believe that the Publication Local Plan is unsound as it plans for an artificially supressed level of housing growth in conflict with the objectively assessed housing needs of the Housing Market Area.

Full text:

See attachment

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66715

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Mr Andy Thompson

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

WDC has failed to consult properly and failed to take account of local representations and recent figures from ONCS on population growth

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66727

Received: 25/06/2014

Respondent: Sir Thomas White's Charity & King Henry VIII Endowed Trust

Agent: Stansgate Planning

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

The number of homes should be increased to meet an extended Local Plan period up to 2031 and to meet the needs arising from adjoining authorities.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66736

Received: 26/06/2014

Respondent: Warwick County Councillors (J. Holland; A. Warner & J. St John)

Number of people: 3

Agent: Jenny St. John

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

The over-development of the greenfield sites on the edge of south Warwick will result in air pollution which the Strategic Transport Assessments cannot mitigate. This will affect both the health of residents and the structure of our multiple historic buildings, which are so important to our sense of place and culture. Warwick already suffers from pollution levels above European guidelines on safety. The plan is not consistent with national policy on conserving and enhancing the natural environment. The latest ONS figures predict 29% fewer residents through the life of the plan therefore there should be a reduction in the number of homes required in the District, removal of a substantial number of development sites south of Warwick to prevent increased air pollution and comply with the NPPF.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66742

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Mr Richard Brookes

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

The level of growth is too high. Since the publication of this Draft new ONS projections show that population growth between 2011 and 2029 is 15,300 compared with the joint SHMA figure of 23,800.
This error is compounded by the Joint SHMA using a Household Headship Ratio of 1.66 people per dwelling. If the ratios and sizes of affordable and market homes are taken into account this ratio should be 2.12. If this is applied to the new population projection this gives a housing requirement of 7,700. If the ratio of 1.66 is used this gives a requirement of 9,300.

Full text:

See attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66775

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

Wish to help devise a sound local plan, but the publication draft is not sound for a number of reasons. The overriding reason is that the housing requirement doesn't take account of mid 2012 population projections. This means the plan is based on outdated data. The 2012 projections show population growth 28.7% less than used for the Joint SHMA. this changes the no. of dwellings required and means less infrastructure investment is needed. This in turn changes the selection of housing sites and allows brownfield sites to be committed before green field sites. This in turn enables a realistic achievable plan to be prepared.

PPG: 2a-003 "Assessing development needs should be proportionate and does not require local councils to consider purely hypothetical future scenarios, only future scenarios that could be reasonably expected to occur." Ensuring there is a supply of sites is necessary with affordable housing. but the Plan also needs to comply with Para 157 of the NPPF. It is also important to keep a balance between jobs and homes.

DTC is also important the JSHMA achieves this, but this needs to be re-examined to address the ONs projections, taking a particular problem with Coventry in to account. The JSHMA indicated a need for 67,536 homes over 18 years across the HMA. The revised projections (based on 2012 ONS) indicate a need for 68,152. However this masks an issue with Coventry's requirement whereby international migration makes up a significant element of the projected increase in Coventry's population. However international students inflow has increased since 2005, but corresponding outflow has not to the same extent (as students are generally resident for 3 years). This indicates that the increase in inflow may be due to international students on courses that are not yet completed. This temporary anomaly is projected forward in the population projections. It does not make sense to provide housing for this population as they won't be there.

If adjustments are made to reflect this, then a worst case scenario for Coventry would be an inflow of 40,000 (instead of 74,000) which is still lower than the JSHMA figure. This in turn would lead to a reduction in the HMA's housing requirement from 68,152 to 51,327.

with this level of housing Warwick District could justify a lower level of housing at the same time as fulfilling the DTC.

The publication draft provides for too many homes and must be revised to reflect the latest projections. Further the JSHMA used an abstract and subjective concept of headship rates. This is critical because small changes in the average household size can alter homes required significantly. It also bases its average household size on the total population. This gives an incorrect result. ONS calculate the population estimates and projections on the total population less those living in communal establishments adding these back into the total population at the end of any calculation. This gives a true average household size which is different to the SHMA household size and varies the relationship between areas as each has a different communal proportion. If the population growth is going to be less, then the household size to use needs to be addressed. different options produce different outcomes. for instance the 2011 census rate would require 6715 homes for an increase of 15,313 people. However the likelihood is that household size will rise rather than fall.

Two other factors will also affect future measures of household size. Over time as affordable homes are reallocated to existing occupants, vacant spaces will become occupied. For owner occupiers, as people find house prices unaffordable, rather than move they tend to stay where they are but extend their properties to accommodate extra children etc. So a calculated outcome can be used to provide the capacity in a lower but acceptable number of homes.

As well as being better in terms of providing the right tenure mix, it is also better from a sustainability point of view as it takes less land, avoids loss of agricultural land, is better from a CO2 emissions reduction viewpoint both from energy used in homes and travel from fossil fuel vehicles, reduces costs and makes all homes more affordable and spreads the homes required around the district, reducing the amount of infrastructure needed by the additional population.

Full text:

Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council Response to Warwick District Council Publication Draft Local Plan 2011 - 2029

Submitted on behalf of Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council,
Contact. Councillor Ray Bullen
Representation 1.
1. In responding to this consultation, the Parish Council emphasises that its sole interest is to help devise a Local Plan that is positively prepared, justified, effective and consistent with national policy, complying with the National Planning Policy Framework and the Planning Practice Guidelines published in March 2014.
2 It is our belief however that draft Local Plan is not sound in a number of aspects.
But over-riding all the matters is the fact that because the plan is based on the joint SHMA, it was only able to use the mid-2011 ONS Population Projections when it was prepared.
On the 29th May 2014, the ONS published the mid-2012 population projections. As we indicated to you at the Planning Forum before the publication draft was approved by the District Council on April 23rd, the new projections show a very significant reduction in population projection for the plan period up to 2029.
3. National planning policy places Local Plans at the heart of the planning system, so it is essential that they are in place and kept up to date. PPG12-001, NPPF157 * 2.
To start a new Local Plan based on outdated data cannot be seen as a sound plan and an Inspector will have to conclude that procedural requirements have not been met and question whether the Plan is sound.
For Warwick District, the joint SHMA uses for Proj 1A a population growth of 23,858 over 20 years, this being 21,472 over 18 years. The mid-2012 ONS projection for 2029 is 153,049, which is a population growth of 15,313 from mid 2011. This is 28.7% less than the Joint SHMA.
This is a very significant change since, amongst other things, it
* Changes the number of dwellings to meet local need
* The lower population will need commensurately less infrastructure support, optimising the use of capacity in existing infrastructure
* Changes the emphasis on the selection of sites for new housing
* Allows brownfield and regeneration sites to be committed before greenfield sites meeting NPPF112 and PPG8-026 and this also places less pressure on Green Belt.
* Can provide a deliverable plan rather than a plan that is too ambitious and unrealistic in the period of the plan
The new projections indicate that 8,343 persons are due to natural change; movement between Warwick District and the rest of the UK account for 5,971 net inflow and International migration shows a net inflow of 999 persons over the plan period.
Further detail is given in Appendix 1 pages 1 to 7.
Until the population targets are revised to the latest projections, the plan cannot be considered ready for submission to Inspection.
Explanation paragraph 2.7 in relation to DS2 commences by saying "The Council's ambitions align with national policy in recognising that housing needs are met for all. "
The parish council agrees that housing needs identified in the district based on up to date population projections should be met, but that the ambitions of the district must also be realistic. Planning practice Guidance on the definition of need, advises that
PPG: 2a-003 "Assessing development needs should be proportionate and does not require local councils to consider purely hypothetical future scenarios, only future scenarios that could be reasonably expected to occur." Ensuring that there is a supply of sites for new housing is clearly necessary with affordable housing and housing that can be afforded being an important part of the plan.

But it is also important to comply with NPPF 157 Crucially, Local Plans should:
* plan positively for the development and infrastructure required in the area to meet the objectives, principles and policies of this Framework;
* identify land where development would be inappropriate, for instance because of its environmental or historic significance; and
* contain a clear strategy for enhancing the natural, built and historic environment, and supporting Nature Improvement Areas where they have been identified.

The projected population increase of 15,313 people will clearly require employment opportunities but it is also important to balance the jobs/homes ratio so that the current ratio, generally regarded as good, is maintained.

4.1 The plan has to be prepared in accordance with the Duty to Cooperate with Neighbouring authorities. This has been accomplished through a joint SHMA. The mid-2012 ONS Population projection has had a similar result for the Warwickshire Districts. There is however a possible problem with the Coventry result.

4.2 This table summarises the revised population growth and the number of dwellings resulting from the same dwelling density as the Joint SHMA. The joint SHMA identified a need for 67,536 homes. The revised projections now identify 68,152 homes.


Population increases JSHMA ONS-2012 projection Population % change
population homes population homes
North Warwickshire 4,074 2,970 3,038 2,218 -25.4%
Nuneaton & Bedworth 16,380 8,892 12,395 6,736 -24.3%
Rugby 23,706 11,844 14,360 7,176 -39.4%
Stratford-on-Avon 14,364 9,684 9,848 6,636 -31.4%
Warwick 21,474 12,924 15,313 9,217 -28.7%
Coventry 43,884 21,222 74,796 36,168 +70.4%
TOTAL HMA 123,882 67,536 129,751 68,152 +4.7%

4.3 Coventry's 2011 ONS population was 316,915 and is projected by 2029 to be 391,711. This is an increase of 74,796 over the plan period. This is made up from
* The net effect of natural change which accounts for 50,734 people by 2029.
* The net effect of people moving in and out of Coventry from other parts of the UK is a net outflow of 50,592 over the plan period.
* The net effect of international migration is an inflow of 74,654 over the plan period.
However, analysis of the numbers of people in single age groups for each year from 2002 to 2029 identifies two problems with this projection.
The first is that the 2 universities currently have about 13,500 international students. Most Coventry students and many Warwick University students live in Coventry. Looking at the 17 to 20, 21 to 24, 25 to 29 and 30 to 34 age groups it was found that there was in increase in these cohort numbers of International inflow from 2005 but not a corresponding outflow. Between 2002 and 2004 the net inflow was between 3400 and 3700. From 2005 inflow increased in significant steps to 7700 by 2011. In younger and older age groups the numbers remained fairly constant for the whole period. This reflected a time when universities sought to increase international students.
There was not a corresponding change in international outflow until 2009 to 2011 but the volume of the outflow was less that the volume of the inflow 3 years earlier. This indicates that the increase in inflow may be due to international students on courses that are not yet completed.
The problem for the population projection is that the higher inflow is reflected in the population projections because it takes the 6 year average from 2007 to 2012 with the higher numbers, but a related outflow at the completion of courses has not yet begun except at a lower level. It would be expected that as courses and related academic activities for each student came to an end then the outflow would approach the previous level of inflow. Hence the projection for outflow on the same 6 year average is based on a low level. This represents a temporary student bulge that in the course of time should rectify as student turn over numbers give equating inflows and outflows.
The 2002 to 2004 net inflow was between 1000 and 2000 per year, but by 2011 and 12, this had become over 5,000 per year.
In the meantime this gives an overall increase of 74,654 due to international migration over the 18 year plan period. It does not make sense to plan to build homes for a population that is theoretical and will not be there.
If the student bulge is factored out by relating student age groups to the younger and older age groups to estimate the possible non-student element, this indicates that the total number of 74,654 will fall to between 25,000 and 40,000 depending the averaging method used. Without any other detail data this is the closest estimate that can be given. Take the worst case of 40,000 inflow due to migration, then this is still lower than the migration inflow in the Joint SHMA of 43,884.
Hence, Coventry would still have a reduced requirement over the JointSHMA of almost 9%, which would indicate that Coventry is unlikely to seek to ask neighbouring authorities to meet its housing need.
The table below shows the result.
Population increases JSHMA ONS-2012 projection Population % change
population homes population homes
North Warwickshire 4,074 2,970 3,038 2,218 -25.4%
Nuneaton & Bedworth 16,380 8,892 12,395 6,736 -24.3%
Rugby 23,706 11,844 14,360 7,176 -39.4%
Stratford-on-Avon 14,364 9,684 9,848 6,636 -31.4%
Warwick 21,474 12,924 15,313 9,217 -28.7%
Coventry 43,884 21,222 40,000 19,344 -8.85%
TOTAL HMA 123,882 67,536 94,954 51,327 +4.7%

4.4 Further detail is given in Appendix 1 pages 12 to 16.


Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council Response to Warwick District Council Publication Draft Local Plan 2011 - 2029

Submitted on behalf of Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council,
Contact. Councillor Ray Bullen
Representation 2.
4. To which part of the Local Plan or Sustainability Appraisal (SA) does this representation relate?
Policy Numbers DS6
5. Do you consider the Local Plan is :
5.1 Legally Compliant? No
5.2 Complies with the Duty to Co-operate? Yes
5.3 Sound? No
6. If you answered no to question 5.3, do you consider the Local Plan and/or SA unsound because it is not: (please tick that apply):
Positively Prepared: √
Justified: Effective: √
Consistent with National Policy: √
9. If your representation is seeking a modification, do you consider it necessary to participate at the oral part of the examination? Yes, I wish to participate at the oral examination.
10. If you wish to participate at the oral part of the examination, please outline why you consider this to be necessary: To ensure the Inspector is fully aware of the implications of the method by which the 2012 population projections are converted to the number of dwellings required in the plan and that a fully justified housing need is objectively assessed.
___________________________________________________________________________


DS6 states that the District will provide 12,860 homes over the plan period. This has to relate to the population projection that the up to date assessment of population growth determines.

This number needs to be revised to comply with the reduction in population growth now known.

To convert population to homes, the JointSHMA used an abstract concept of Headship rates, based on information contained in the 2011-based CLG household projections about the relationship between the total population in an age group and the number of household reference persons (HRPs) in that age group. But this is only true at the time the data is taken. HRP's can be any age and are mobile. It can only be a subjective and not an objective assessment.

It is critical because small changes in the average household size can alter homes required significantly. The JointSHMA bases its chosen headship rate on an arbitrary split between 2008 and 2011 headship rates.

It also bases its average household size on the total population. This gives an incorrect result. ONS calculate the population estimates and projections on the total population less those living in communal establishments adding these back into the total population at the end of any calculation. This gives a true average household size which is different to the SHMA household size and varies the relationship between areas as each has a different communal proportion.

If the population less communal residents is added to the Joint SHMA plan,, the 2029 population becomes 156,150 plus communal. The combined dwellings total 71,603 and the resultant household size is 2.181.This is a very low figure compared with the 2011 census.

Add the existing and new populations together 2011 census including growth to mid-2012 18 year plan 2029 projection
population 134,678 + 21,472 = 156,150
dwellings 58,679 + 12,924 = 71,603
Persons/household 2.295 = 2.181

If the population growth is going to be less, then the household size to use needs to be addressed.

The following options could be considered -

a) If the population of 15,313 is substituted in to the table above so that the household size in 2029 remains as 2.181, then 10,100 would be needed.

b) Proportionately, the revised population growth would require 9,217 homes producing an average household size of 2.209.

c) Using census data for 2001, the average household size excluding communal was 2.32. But the 2011 size was 2.295. If the size dropped at the same rate in the next 18 years it would become 2.245. If this is used for the revised population projection, the calculation becomes
Add the existing and new populations together 2011 census including growth to mid-2012 18 year plan 2029 projection
population 134,678 + 15,313 = 149,991
dwellings 58,679 + 8,118 = 66,797
Persons/household 2.295 = 2.245


d) However, there is no evidence that says that any drop in household size will be at the same rate. The closer that the size gets to 1, the slower will be the reducing rate of change. If the 2011 census rate of 2.295 prevails then 6,715 homes would provide for 15,313 people.

e) Because the built home is normally constant, the size and tenure of a house, on average over time, is a better indicator of household size than the variable HRP. Given that we know from the 2011 census the number of people in the number of house of each tenure type, we have an up to date household size for each dwelling type, for example, the average household size for a detached house or bungalow was 2.585.

Further details are given in Appendix 1 pages 8 to 11 where a calculation for a typical development takes the 2011 census data for each dwelling type adds on the densities arising from Affordable homes that will be allocated to match families to the number of bedrooms they need and the market housing developers have selected the type they want to include in their development. From Page 10 in the appendix, in the example given, the average household size calculates at 2.325. So the likelihood is that the household size will rise rather than fall. If it should rise to 2.325 over the whole of the 2029 population, then only 5,785 homes will be required.

Two other factors will also affect future measures of household size. Over time as affordable homes are reallocated to existing occupants, vacant spaces will become occupied. For owner occupiers, as people find house prices unaffordable, rather than move they tend to stay where they are but extend their properties to accommodate extra children etc. So a calculated outcome can be used to provide the capacity in a lower but acceptable number of homes.

As well as being better in terms of providing the right tenure mix, it is also better from a sustainability point of view as it takes less land, avoids loss of agricultural land, is better from a CO2 emissions reduction viewpoint both from energy used in homes and travel from fossil fuel vehicles, reduces costs and makes all homes more affordable and spreads the homes required around the district, reducing the amount of infrastructure needed by the additional population. This is what the NPPF6 means by "The purpose of the planning system is to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development. The policies in paragraphs 18 to 219, taken as a whole, constitute the Government's view of what sustainable development in England means in practice for the planning system. 7. There are three dimensions to sustainable development: economic, social and Environmental all of which should be achieved simultaneously."
Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council Response to Warwick District Council Publication Draft Local Plan 2011 - 2029

Submitted on behalf of Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council,
Contact. Councillor Ray Bullen
Representation 3.
4. To which part of the Local Plan or Sustainability Appraisal (SA) does this representation relate?
Policy Numbers DS4, DS7, DS10, DS11, NE5
5. Do you consider the Local Plan is :
5.1 Legally Compliant? No
5.2 Complies with the Duty to Co-operate? Yes
5.3 Sound? No
6. If you answered no to question 5.3, do you consider the Local Plan and/or SA unsound because it is not: (please tick that apply):
Positively Prepared: √
Justified: Effective: √
Consistent with National Policy: √
9. If your representation is seeking a modification, do you consider it necessary to participate at the oral part of the examination? Yes, I wish to participate at the oral examination.
10. If you wish to participate at the oral part of the examination, please outline why you consider this to be necessary: To ensure that in the selection of sites for development, compliance with all NPPF matters from provision of housing and infrastructure to protecting Green Belt, conserving the natural and historic environment is achieved.
___________________________________________________________________________


DS7 identifies 13,014 sites for a plan of 12860 homes. This has to relate to the population projection that the up to date assessment of population growth determines, so that this number needs to be revised to comply with the reduction in population growth now known.

DS7 lists sites completed between 2011 and 2013 as 406. This conflicts with a previously published number of 447 in the June 2013 % year housing land supply document.

It makes no provision for the following
1. As PPG3-036 no allowance has been made to deduct oversupply of 687 made in years previous to the start date of Apr 2011 when completions of 5,947 compared with the target was 5,260.
2. Completions of 450 in the 2013/14 financial year, listed in the rough update April 2014 is not shown.
3. No allowance is made for completions since 1st April 2014.
4. An up to date assessment of sites under construction is not included.
5. No allowance has been included for vacant dwellings returned to use since1/4/11 to date, as reported to DCLG and upon which new homes bonus has been received by the District.
6. No allowance for vacant dwellings being returned to use through the remainder of the plan period has been included.


Explanation 2.22 states that the balance of housing outside of DS7 is to be provided on allocated brownfield and greenfield sites across the District. Reference is made to DS4.



Policy NE5 Protection of Natural Resources para d) includes reference to NPPF112 concerning best & most versatile agricultural land. It is a somewhat watered down version of NPPF112 that requires LPA's to take into account the economic and other benefits of the b&mv ag land. Even where significant development of b&mv ag land is identified, it has to be demonstrated that it is necessary and seek to use poorer quality land in preference to it. Explanation clause 5.198 expands NE5d) satisfactorily until it gets to the last few lines where it alters the sense of NPPF112 with a less stringent condition requiring any lower grade land to be excused if it has adverse sustainability impacts such as ...... sustainable patterns of development. This last phrase could mean anything to a developer. It may well explain why NE5 conflicts with DS11 where the Local Plan includes a significant number of sites as a first call for the housing required, before brownfield and urban regeneration sites have been fully examined.


Explanation 2.23 states that the housing strategy shows a timeline for the delivery of housing across the plan period. The housing trajectory is unexplained and shows annual targets that are unlikely to be met. For a trajectory to be achieved, it should be site related so that as sites are approved they can be included in the trajectory correctly and confidently. 2014/15 is supposed to deliver over 1,000 homes but as yet none of the large sites have commenced.


DS4 Spatial Strategy contains statements that are not being observed.

a) in the first instance, allocations will be directed to previously developed land within urban areas. If this is the case why have 5 major sites been approved in advance of any (except for affordable homes on Queensway) previously developed land within the urban areas? Regeneration and enhancement sites remain to be identified in principle let alone activation. The strategy is right, but its needs to be fully implemented.

b) greenfield sites will not need to be identified for housing because the revised population projection shows that the number of homes have either already been built, permission granted, allocated without involving greenfield or green belt for up to 10,100 homes, more than is now known to be required.

DS10 and DS11 sets out a list of allocated housing sites.

Taking these lists and the current programme position, the sites have been listed in appendix 2. This appendix shows that 8,482 sites have been identified as -

1. Previous years oversupply; completions to date; sites under construction; vacant dwellings already returned; permissions not started; further permission between April and December 2013; offices to residences approved; windfall sites for the plan period; small urban sites on SHLAA sites and consolidation of existing employment areas and canal side development.

This means that if the housing numbers identified as needed by a revised approach on population numbers and the conversion method to number of dwellings up to 8482 dwellings for this set of supply categories , then no further applications need to be granted to meet the plan as there is already a surplus provision. This applies to options c), 8,118 d), 6,615 & e) 5,785 in Representation 2 from Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council.

If the maximum figure for the reduced population projection figure of 9,217 is considered to be necessary, then to this list can be added allocated urban brownfield sites definites only; 2 greenfield sites in urban locations; 4 sites accepted in villages and 6 sites granted since January 2014 can be added giving 9,601 dwelling sites.

The reduced population projection and the related reduction in the number of houses required now means that the use of any further greenfield sites cannot be demonstrated to be necessary and those should be removed from DS11.


2. This applies to the following sites (See also APPENDIX 2)

Land west of Europa Way
East of Whitnash/south of Sydenham
Campion hills
East of Kenilworth (Thickthorn)
Both Kenilworth School sites.
All villages except Bishops Tachbrook, Barford and Radford Semele
Land south of Harbury Lane, including the former sewage works which is wrongly classified under Urban Brownfield sites. In any event this is a valuable green part of the Tachbrook Valley with a significant range of ecological biodiversity implications, a series of deep tanks across the site that would make any development difficult and a slope across the site which at the proximity of the Tach Brook turns into a steep slope. It is well planted and supports a number of mammals. Otters are known in the brook.
The photo below shows the former sewage works. This is not urban brownfield.


3. The list also shows
* Grove Farm at 200 dwellings which is currently subject to appeal after refusal,
* future vacant dwellings return and
* a list of 543 C2 homes for the elderly, all of which can be counted towards the housing supply in accordance with PPG3-037.
037 How should local planning authorities deal with housing for older people?
Older people have a wide range of different housing needs, ranging from suitable and appropriately located market housing through to residential institutions (Use Class C2). Local planning authorities should count housing provided for older people, including residential institutions in Use Class C2, against their housing requirement. The approach taken, which may include site allocations, should be clearly set out in the Local Plan.
With these it would no longer be necessary to keep the sensitive urban brownfield and sensitive greenfield shown at the end of appendix 2 in DS11.

So the 3 Kenilworth sites, land west of Europa Way and East of Whitnash/ south of Sydenham do not need to be included.


Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council Response to Warwick District Council Publication Draft Local Plan 2011 - 2029

Submitted on behalf of Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council,
Contact. Councillor Ray Bullen
Representation 4.
4. To which part of the Local Plan or Sustainability Appraisal (SA) does this representation relate?
Policy Numbers DS13
5. Do you consider the Local Plan is :
5.1 Legally Compliant? Don't know
5.2 Complies with the Duty to Co-operate? No
5.3 Sound? No
6. If you answered no to question 5.3, do you consider the Local Plan and/or SA unsound because it is not: (please tick that apply):
Positively Prepared: √
Justified: Effective: √
Consistent with National Policy: √
9. If your representation is seeking a modification, do you consider it necessary to participate at the oral part of the examination? Yes, I wish to participate at the oral examination.
10. If you wish to participate at the oral part of the examination, please outline why you consider this to be necessary: To ensure that best and most versatile agricultural land is protected sufficiently to conserve and enhance the Natural Environment
___________________________________________________________________________

DS13 allocates grade 2 and 3a agricultural for the development of a country park as part of the offsetting of the housing development proposed south of Harbury Lane.

Now that the 2012 population projections show that land south of Harbury Lane is not necessary for housing development, this area of land should also remain as agricultural land. This is particularly important as it an essential part of the Tachbrook Valley and can be seen from long distances across the valley.

As part of the duty to cooperate, the District Council should work with the Parish Council, as we prepare our Neighbourhood Plan and in accordance with Policy NP2 stating that the Council will support communities preparing Neighbourhood Plans.

The developing Neighbourhood plan seeks to retain the agricultural economy of the land between Harbury Lane and the Tach Brook but at the same time open the area up in a limited way with a brookstray walk and habitat improvement for wildlife possibly through an extended Defra/ Natural England Stewardship scheme and a Local Greenspace designation over those stewardship areas. This could achieve the objectives in Explanation paras 2.57 but not commit to the expensive country park concept.

We doubt that the £1.5m needed to set up a Country Park, which will require car parks and facilities for the public, becoming urbanised and less friendly to wildlife, will be available nor can we see the expensive continual maintenance being affordable from reducing Council budgets. Hence we cannot see the Country Park will materialise.




Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council Response to Warwick District Council Publication Draft Local Plan 2011 - 2029

Submitted on behalf of Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council,
Contact.
Representation 5.
4. To which part of the Local Plan or Sustainability Appraisal (SA) does this representation relate?
Policy Numbers DM1
5. Do you consider the Local Plan is :
5.1 Legally Compliant? No
5.2 Complies with the Duty to Co-operate? Yes
5.3 Sound? No
6. If you answered no to question 5.3, do you consider the Local Plan and/or SA unsound because it is not: (please tick that apply):
Positively Prepared: √
Justified: Effective: √
Consistent with National Policy: √
9. If your representation is seeking a modification, do you consider it necessary to participate at the oral part of the examination? Yes, I wish to participate at the oral examination.
10. If you wish to participate at the oral part of the examination, please outline why you consider this to be necessary: To ensure that the Local Plan has been prepared to a realistic level that can be supported by adequate income from developments CIL and other government payments such as new homes bonus to ensure that the additional infrastructure necessary to accommodate the increased population of 15,313 people
___________________________________________________________________________

It is an important part of the local plan that the necessary infrastructure required to support the additional population has been fully identified , addressed in the plan as to where and how it will be delivered and that the costs have been assessed and a financial plan for their delivery determined.

An independent assessment of the plan for 12860 homes has been carried out by professionals concerned that this aspect is not properly covered, since the result of an inadequate financial plan would mean the necessary infrastructure is not provided or that it has to come from other source which the current inhabitants will have to meet the cost of.

DM1 says it will happen but there does not appear to be a plan in place to ensure that it does. If this is the case, then the inspector, who will have to ensure that such a plan is in place, will find that it doesn't and the plan will be found unsound.

However the amount of infrastructure necessary will depend on the population to be planned for, the housing numbers necessary to meet that need and the location of housing.

Across the district currently, much of the infrastructure is fairly fully stretched. Major items such Education, Hospitals and road networks are heavily utilised. But there are parts where there is some spare capacity that new developments can utilise.

If the housing needed is spread around the district, then some of the existing infrastructure can take up the spare capacity and in some ways that can be a good thing. But large amounts of new housing are concentrated in one place then large amounts of new infrastructure cannot be avoided.

For the 12,860 homes plan, our independent assessment indicates that the costs of the infrastructure required will be between £30m to £50m more than the income that will be received from section 106, CIL(when it applies), new homes bonus and other sundry incomes. This is on the assumption that the infrastructure costs are capital costs and that the revenue running costs will be met from income generated from Council tax and similar receipts.

In our assessment we have included the costs of road traffic schemes due to high concentrations of new traffic in underprovided areas, Health and hospitals, Education, sports facilities, recreational facilities , cultural and community , police and emergency services as well as parking provision for the additional users of the towns. All this additional infrastructure will require sites upon which to place the facilities and these had not been selected nor has any land acquisition cost been included.

It will be appreciated that doing this exercise from outside the authority, much of the detail necessary is not available and it is dependent on published information from the District Councils website as to the amounts of payments so far agreed with developers on the early schemes.

Although the plan is for 12860 homes, many of these will not be paying contributions because they have been approved in advance of the programme, are affordable homes so will not be liable for payments and are part of small schemes for which 106 payments are not sought.

We find compared with an expenditure of in the region of £230m income that will be recovered to pay for those costs will be about £190m, leaving £50m unfinanced.
If the reduced population now known is taken into the plan then much of the infrastructure listed will cease to be required, because the sites are already known and are well distributed around the district. Some elements are population number dependent but lower numbers mean a smaller impact on them.

Depending on the housing number decided the assessment will to be reworked. Until thenthe plan does not have a sound infrastructure cost strategy.

Assessing development needs should be proportionate and does not require local councils to consider purely hypothetical future scenarios, only future scenarios that could be reasonably expected to occur.
Paragraph: 037 Reference ID: 3-037-20140306

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66791

Received: 26/06/2014

Respondent: Gallagher Estates

Agent: Pegasus Group

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

A key function of the plan is to meet in full the need for housing over the plan period. Policy DS6 does not, in our view, achieve this. It is considered that the requirement figure of 12,860 dwellings 2011 to 2029 is not positively prepared and is unsound. There is concern that the migration assumptions that have fed into the SHMA are not reflective of representative or normal migration patterns which instead have been influenced by the artificial policy constraint arising from the housing moratorium in place in Warwick District between 2005 and February 2009 . There was a period of recession once the moratorium was lifted which also has the effect of constraining supply and influencing migration trends.
There is also concern about the household formation rates used in the SHMA which use a blended approach utilising both 2008 and 2011 headship rates. It is considered that the use of 2011 headship rates to 2021 then 2008 headship rates for the following 10 years is far too pessimistic. The SHMA supports growth in labour supply of around 12% for the baseline assessment which falls short of the Experian forecast of 14.3%. It makes reference to unmet need which has not been added to the projections despite planning practice guidance stating it should be. Using the Chelmer model an alternative assessment has been undertaken for Warwick District which concludes the starting point for determining the actual housing requirement for Warwick is a figure of 15,084 dwellings over the plan period 2011 to 2029 based on the most up to date demographic information. To fulfil economic potential and to provide for projected employment growth within the plan period a higher requirement of circa 18,043 should be considered. In light of this it is considered that the delivery of 715 homes per annum would not deliver the full objectively assessed need for housing in the District. It would not assist in delivering economic growth, wouldn't address the serious imbalance in supply and demand and would not deliver the affordable housing needed. In the past the District has delivered rates of 900 + which suggests a rate of 1000 per annum could be achieved.

Full text:

see attached.

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66797

Received: 25/06/2014

Respondent: Mr Ian Lovecy

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

It is not possible to estimate housing requirements accurately due to so many uncertainties. It therefore doesn't make sense to set a requirement to the nearest 10 houses and experience shows this is likely to inaccurate in either direction.

Full text:

See attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 66825

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Europa Way Consortium

Agent: AMEC

Legally compliant? Yes

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Yes

Representation Summary:

The housing target policy in DS6 should be clearly identified as a minimum delivery requirement, net of demolitions, to enable the full objectively assessed need to be met.

The District's overall affordable housing need should be increased to 360 affordable dwellings per annum to deal with past undersupply.

The December 2012 Economic and Demographic Forecasts study shows net in migration of 855 persons a year in Warwick, therefore the zero migration scenario used in the 2013 SHMA is likely to have underestimated the need for affordable housing. In addition the 2012 SHMA identified a need for 698 affordable dwellings per annum in the District. This is a significantly higher level of need identified only one year before the joint SHMA.

The Council's proposed figure of 12,860 homes between 2011 and 2029 is over 100 dwellings less than what the Joint SHMA states is the objectively assessed housing target.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 67117

Received: 03/07/2014

Respondent: Mr Ben Orme

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Full text:

See attached

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 67131

Received: 24/06/2014

Respondent: Mr Ray Steele

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

Latest update from ONS suggests a reduction of 30% in need for LP. WDC has been requested to reflect this in the LP. It will require considerable changes and revised LP. However, many houses have already been granted planning permission ahead of inspection.

Full text:

see attached

Attachments:

Object

Publication Draft

Representation ID: 67222

Received: 27/06/2014

Respondent: Bloor Homes Midlands

Agent: Marrons Planning

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

Representation Summary:

The draft Local Plan has failed to demonstrate:
* it has proactively driven/supported sustainable economic development, and done everything it can to support sustainable economic growth;
* it meets the business needs of the area and delivers homes to support the growth of the local economy;
* it is based on the most up-to-date and robust evidence about the economic prospects and needs of the area; and,
* it integrates the strategic policies for prosperity (Strategic Policies DS1 and DS8) and housing (Strategic Policies DS2 and DS6).
The level of economic growth to be provided for is not defined within the draft Local Plan.
The strategy for prosperity in the draft Local Plan is to provide for the growth of the local and sub-regional economy by ensuring sufficient/appropriate employment land is available to meet the existing/future needs of businesses (Strategic Policy DS1).
Policy DS8 provides for a minimum of 66ha of employment land to meet local need (for the period 2011 to 2030). The strategy for housing is to provide in full the objectively assessed need (Strategic Policy DS2). Policies DS6, DS7 and DS10 provides for 12,860 new homes (for the period 2011 to 2029).
The evidence base fails to support Paragraph 2.7 of the LP that economic growth has been balanced with housing growth, and that meeting the full objectively assessed need for housing will complement and meet the economic and business needs and ambitions of the District.
The evidence can be found within the Economic and Demographic Forecasts Study (EDFS) (December 2012), the Employment Land Review Update (ELR) (May 2013), and its economic ambitions can be found within the Strategic Economic Plan for Coventry & Warwickshire LEP (SEP) (March 2014).
The economic strength of Warwick is undeniable, and is summarised in paragraphs 3.1 to 3.6 of the ELR. Its economy has outperformed the West Midlands and UK in terms of its growth and is forecast to continue that trend (both in terms of GVA and employment) into the plan period. Warwick has an economic structure which is aligned to the future growth sectors, such as professional services, healthcare, and IT.
Warwick also has a particular strength in the automotive/vehicle manufacturing sector, with several major employers including Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) who have facilities located both within and on the edge of the District. Given the significance of JLR to the national economy, it is no surprise that the Vision for Coventry & Warwickshire in 2025 within the SEP is to be recognised as a global hub and a UK Centre of Excellence in the advanced manufacturing and engineering sector. Many of the SEP's priorities and actions are focussed around facilitating the growth of this sector, including investment to deliver new/expanded facilities at several employment sites within and bordering Warwick District. The SEP has estimated its actions alone may generate over 50,000 jobs by 2030 across the sub-region.
It is very clear from the evidence that the Warwick economy is undoubtedly the 'powerhouse' within the sub-region and West Midlands region. Its future economic performance and continued success is therefore critical to the overall performance of the sub-region and regional economy, and the delivery of the ambitions within SEP.
Whilst the availability of suitable employment land is a key factor influencing Warwick's future economic growth and prosperity, it is not the only component that the Local Plan will need to influence.
A key challenges is to ensure that the planned growth of Warwick and the sub-region's economy is not frustrated by lack of access to skilled workforce. To deliver a global hub and national centre of excellence, requires businesses to be able to attract the necessary talent. Providing access to available homes of a high quality is an essential component of the offer. SEP recognises that the shortage of new homes can be a significant barrier to sustainable economic growth.
In this context, it is of concern that the objectively assessed housing need figure chosen by the Council fails to support a growth in labour supply that meets the forecasts for employment growth. The chosen housing figure only supports labour supply growth of 8,996 for the period 2011 to 2031 leaving a shortfall against the forecast of between 1,304 and 1,904 jobs.
This shortfall is likely to be under-estimated as the employment forecasts preceded the publication of the SEP and have not taken account of its potential influence in accelerating the rate of growth of growing sectors within Warwick. Mindful of the growth in housing supply not keeping pace with the economic ambitions for the area, it is noted that the SEP prioritises a review of additional future housing numbers across the sub-region by the end of March 2015 (page 8). The draft Local Plan does state that it has taken account of the SEP, although there is no reference to a review of its housing numbers within the draft Local Plan.
Whilst it is recognised that the shortfall in labour supply growth might be mitigated through people holding down more than one job, or increased in-commuting from outside of the District (as suggested within paragraph 7.28 of the SHMA), it is noted that when recommending the chosen housing figure, the SHMA advised the Council to consider its
alignment with forecast economic growth, and how employment growth will be supported.
It is not clear whether the Council has undertaken this exercise as the draft Local Plan does not explain how the shortfall between growth in labour supply and growth in jobs will be addressed, or what the implications may be. In commuting from outside the District is one possible consequence.
In this context, it is considered that the strategy has not been positively prepared as it has not proactively driven and supported sustainable economic development, or done everything it can to support sustainable economic growth. It does not meet the objectively assessed development requirements as set out in the evidence base, and therefore is not in accordance with the Framework.

Full text:

see attached