Object

Representation ID: 66031

Received: 30/06/2014

Respondent: The Warwick Society

Legally compliant? Not specified

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? Not specified

HOUSEHOLD SIZE
The JSHMA assumes a rapid decrease in average household size which is not supported by evidence. The base data are questionable and other sources suggest a rise in average household size in Warwick District between 2001 and 2011. If tends are applied household size would fall to 2.30 in 2031. However GLH hearn have applied some senisitivities to take account supression of household formation, meaning household sizes would fall to 2.22 by 2031 - a much greater fall than past trends indicate and is an abuse of sensitivity testing. For instance factors acting in the opposite direction have been ignored such as the trend towards households which accommodate three generations.

PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH
THE JSHMA is not based on the most up to date population projections. The latest projections show a 29% reduction in growth to the end of the plan period - 6,200 fewer people. This reduces by some 2,800 the number of new homes needed. Suggestions that this should be balanced by increases in Coventry's population growth are spurious as projected growth in Coventry is an artificial projection as a result of the universities' response to changes in their funding régime - incoming students are repeatedly added to each year's projection, but outgoing students are largely omitted. Without this Coventry's population is projected to grow in line with that of the sub-region as a whole.

The impact of this is that housing growth should be in 8100 over the plan period.

The knock on effect of the Council's proposals are that the average household size would be much smaller than projected and this is not consistent with the proposed densities of developments on greenfield sites. This inconsistency futher contributes to the unsoundness of the housing need calculation.