Object

Representation ID: 49214

Received: 24/07/2012

Respondent: Hallam Land Management & William Davies Ltd

Agent: Marrons

The Relationship between Housing and Employment Growth
i.Summary of the projections used to inform Policy PO1 is set out at Figures
2.21 and 2.22 of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (March 2012)
(SHMA). Three of the thirteen (13) projections set out in the SHMA are
summarised in Table 5.1 of the Plan. Each of these are at the upper end of the
range that can be identified from the thirteen projections, which extend from
191 dwellings per annum (PROJ6) to 800 dwellings per annum (PRJOJ13).
ii. The three projections "considered to be worthy of further consideration" and
as referred to in Table 5.1 are as follows:
Projection 1. (PROJ1 of Fig 2.21/22.) Trend based and assuming continued
in migration of 400 persons per annum. The resulting housing requirement is
596 dwellings per annum or 11,921 dwellings 2011 - 2031.
Projection 2. (PROJ7 of Fig 2.21/22.) Projected employment growth of
11,860 jobs. Within this projection migration levels are adjusted so that the
growth in the labour supply matches the growth in the demand for labour
(jobs). The resulting housing requirement is 716 dwellings per annum or
14,310 dwellings 2011 - 2031. The demand for new housing could be
adjusted downwards by increasing levels of in-commuting.
Projection 3. (PROJ8 of Fig 2.21/22.) Projected labour force growth derived
from a population growth of 17,070 persons. Taking account of existing
commuting dynamics, this results in a growth in jobs of 7,895 jobs. The
resulting housing requirement is 569 dwellings per annum or 11,376 dwellings
2011 - 2031.
iii. Projection 3 is not considered appropriate, because the increase in jobs
(11,860 see Projection 2) is not matched by an increase in homes. Projections
1 and 2 were considered the more appropriate basis for estimating growth in
the District.
iv. Policy PO1, however, is based on the provision of 600 homes per annum. To
balance homes and jobs would require 716 homes per annum. In order to
support the forecast of 11,860 jobs there will need to be an increase in incommuting
to the District from adjoining areas to provide the necessary labour
force.
v. If the housing policy remains at 600 dwellings per annum, then the economic
growth of the District will require the provision of some additional homes
(about 116 dwellings per annum, i.e. 716 - 600 = 116), in those Districts,
which presently show commuter flows into Warwick.
b. Evidence of the Co-operation with Neighbouring Authorities
(i) If the broad strategic objectives of the plan are to "facilitate the growth and
development of the local economy" (see para 2.5), maintain high levels of
employment and to balance housing growth with employment growth, then the
plan should make provision for the development of 716 dwellings per annum
or 12,888 dwellings over the plan period 2011 - 2029. Development at this
scale would not be reliant on adjoining authorities acting as "hosts" to growing
numbers of in-commuters to the District over the plan period so that the
growth I employment opportunities can be realised.
(ii) In the alternative, should the Local Plan be progressed on the basis of
providing 600 new homes per annum or 10,800 dwellings over the plan period,
then some of the housing to "match the growth in employment", will be
provided outside the District. However, that assumption must be supported by
evidence to indicate that the local authorities who "host" the anticipated
growth in the number of in-commuters to Warwick are content to provide land
for the necessary number of new homes. For the plan to be sound and in
conformity with the advice in the NPPF at paragraphs 178 - 181 it cannot be
appropriate to rely on the intention set out in paragraph 5.12 of the plan, which
states that:
"The Council will, however, be consulting neighbouring
authorities on its proposals."
For the plans proposals to move forward on the basis of completing 600
dwellings per annum it must demonstrate how and where some 116 homes per
annum (716 - 600) are to be constructed. It will be wholly inappropriate to
progress the plan to submission stage without evidence that this issue has been
resolved on the basis of an agreement at sub-regional level.
(iii) Notwithstanding the observation at (ii) above, Policy PO3 and Tables 7.1 and
7.2 note that the plan will provide for "allocations" totalling 8,360 dwellings;
some 1,374 dwellings or 76 dwellings per annum more than the required scale
of new housing to be provided on allocated sites (see Table 7.1). These
planned allocations together with the addition of some further suitable SHLAA
sites could, in our view, meet the higher level of provision required to achieve
the balance between housing and employment.