2. A Spatial Portrait of Warwick District¹

2.1 This section provides an overview of the nature of the District and its population, and identifies some of the key issues for the Core Strategy to address.

Warwick District's People

Total population

134,600 (estimate at mid 2007)

A 'Growing' Population

Population at 1971	111,700
Population at 1981	115,500
Population at 1991	118,100
Population at 2001	126,100
Population at 2006	132,900
Population at 2011 (projected)	142,100
Population at 2021 (projected)	159,800
Population at 2031 (projected)	174,900

2.2 The growth in the population of Warwick District has been rapid in recent years (2001-2006). The majority of this growth has resulted from people moving into the District from other areas, notably the urban areas of Coventry and Birmingham. A key factor behind this trend has been the particularly high levels of house building that has taken place within the District during that period.

2.3 The population projections beyond 2006 are trend based on the assumption that the very rapid growth in population that occurred between 2001 and 2006 continues, i.e. the rate of births and deaths, and the continued movement of people into the District from the major cities of the region to the District. Projecting population growth over such long time periods is inherently uncertain due to the various assumptions that have to be made about changes in society and migration. The above projections of growth are particularly unrealistic given that they take no account of changes in policy affecting population movement within the Region.

2.4 The emerging West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy is seeking to address this upward trend in population through planning policies that focus more new development within the major cities of the West Midlands in order to support their regeneration and therefore reduce the rate of migration from the cities to Districts like Warwick. However, notwithstanding this policy approach, the population of Warwick District will still continue to grow as a result of natural increases in the local population and some in-migration, and the Core Strategy will need to plan for this growth.

An 'Ageing' Population

Proportion of children (0-15)	17% of total population
Proportion of working age population	63.7% of total population
Proportion of older people	19.1% of total population

2.5 The highest rate of projected population growth in the future is expected to be amongst the 'older people' aged 65 and over. If the projections are correct, this will have implications for the future provision of services and the nature of housing to be provided within the District in the future which the Core Strategy will need to help address.

An 'Ethnically Diverse' Population

Proportion of Black and Minority Ethnic

15% of total population

2.6 The District has a diverse population, with a high proportion of non-white British residents compared to other Districts in the County and the Core Strategy must consider the needs of all sectors of the community.

An 'Urban' Population

Proportion living in an urban area	90% of total population
Proportion living in a rural area	10% of total population

2.7 Growth of the District in recent years has focussed primarily on the urban areas and this is reflected in the above figures which show a concentration of population on the four main towns of Warwick, Royal Leamington Spa, Whitnash and Kenilworth. The rural population is a small proportion reflecting the number and size of the villages and hamlets in the District, and none of these settlements are more than five miles from an urban area. However, they are still an important part of the character of the District and the Core Strategy must consider their needs and opportunities.

A 'Skilled and Productive' Population

Proportion of residents with qualifications	Significantly higher than County, Regional and National averages at all NVQ levels
Proportion of economically active	78.8% of working age population
Economic performance in terms of GVA	Leading contributor to the County economy
Proportion of population unemployed	Consistently lower than County, Regional and National figures

2.8 Notwithstanding the current economic downturn, the District has in recent years had a strong local economy, with a skilled population and higher than average levels of productivity and earnings compared with regional and national averages. It is recognised as an important contributor to the regional economy and the Core Strategy will need to help maintain and improve the economic performance of the area, particularly given the current economic downturn. There are also some parts of the District with high levels of worklessness, i.e. people of working age who are not employed and claiming benefits. The Core Strategy will also need to help address this issue with other agencies.

A 'Healthy and Safe' Population

Life expectancy	78 (men) 83 (women) above regional/national average
Crime rate per 1,000 population	70 (below the County average)
Anti-social behaviour per 1,000 population	54 (below the County average)

2.9 The District as a whole has a healthy population compared with other areas, with higher than average life expectancy and lower levels of health deprivation and obesity. However, this hides the fact that the gap in life expectancy between the least and most deprived areas of the District is over five years for men. Similarly, levels of recorded crime across the District are low in comparison to other areas, although the fear of crime and anti-social behaviour is an issue in many communities. The Core Strategy will need to support wider initiatives to maintain and improve the health and safety of the population.

A 'Balanced' District²

Working Age Population	85,800
Total Number of Jobs	76,8003

2.10 The District is reasonably well balanced in terms of the number of jobs matching the number of workers. It will be important for the Core Strategy to seek to maintain this balance and to support the growth in the economy as its population grows, both across the District and within the towns.

A District with Housing Needs

Total number of homes	59,5284
Number of households on housing waiting list	4,692

2.11 The District has in recent times had a strong housing market where average house prices have been consistently higher than the regional and national averages. This has resulted in affordability problems for people on lower incomes, with an average house price being more than 8 times average earnings (lower quartiles). This is a key issue for the Core Strategy to address.

An 'Environmentally and Historically Important' District

Total Area	28,226ha (69,748 acres)
Proportion of District within the Green Belt	81% (20,545ha)
Number of Sites of Special Scientific Interest	7
Number of Sites of Importance for Nature Cons.	15
Amount of unrestricted green space	5.47ha per 1,000 population
Number of Listed Buildings	2,145
Number of Conservation Areas	29 (3.9% of the District)
Number of Registered Parks and Gardens	11 (4% of the District)

2.12 A significant proportion of the District is designated for its environmental or historic value and the Core Strategy will have an important role in balancing the growth of the District whilst protecting and enhancing these assets as part of maintaining the character and attractiveness of the District.

A District with low levels of 'Multiple Deprivation'

Number of areas ranked in the top 20% most deprived nationally	1
Number of areas ranked in the top 30% most deprived nationally	4
Number of areas ranked in the top 10% most deprived nationally in terms of barriers to housing and services	14

2.13 Overall, levels of deprivation in the District are low with the majority of communities within the 50% least deprived areas nationally, and some communities within the top 5% least deprived areas of the country. However, like many areas there are also pockets of deprivation and particular deprivation issues around access to housing and services across a wide area of the District which the Core Strategy must help address through narrowing the gaps between affluent and deprived areas.

2.14 The spatial portrait and the issues identified has helped the Council to develop a spatial vision and strategy for how it wants the District to develop in the future, and this is set out within the next section.

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¹ All data has been taken from the Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2008 Report (Warwickshire Observatory) and the Warwick Profile also provided by the Observatory (unless specified)

² Number of jobs compared to the number of working age population

³ Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2007 (NOMIS)

⁴ Source: Council Tax Records (February 2008)