Object

Representation ID: 63512

Received: 29/07/2013

Respondent: Lenco Investments

Agent: RPS Planning

-Paragraph 4.16 outlines that the evidence in the updated SHMA indicates a range between 11,300 and 14,300 based upon demographic and economic scenarios. However it is not clear how these figures have been derived. According to Paragraph 4.1.8, the EDFS study identifies that the employment led population and household suggestions hat there is a need for between 13,300 and 13,800 additional homes between 2011 and 2029.
-In arriving at a final figure of 12,300 dwellings in paragraph 4.1.10 the Council's Revised Strategy, the justification appears to come from different a source of evidence and assumptions of GVA and 'economic modelling work' which is not apparent in the documents in the public domain.
-It is not clear in the evidence where this economic modelling is documented or justified, nor how it has considered the full range of scenarios assessed in detail in the Economic and Demographic Forecast Study. This is therefore not justified at present unless a clear audit of the evidence base can be demonstrated.
-Furthermore the assumptions about GVA are incorrect according to the Council's own evidence. The GVA evidence in the Councils forecasting study indicates that GVA for Warwick will outperform the West Midlands on its base forecast and will be as high as 2.9% by 2025 (Figure 5) compared to a figure of 2.6% for the west midlands. Given that the document consistently refers to the district outperforming the West Midlands it would therefore appear logical to plan on the basis of at least 2.9% rather than 2.4%. This is further substantiated by Figure 12 of the document indicating that the Gateway Development itself could increase GVA in Warwick District by between 8% and 10% over its base figure, thus it is likely to be in the region of 3% overall.