Object

Representation ID: 63444

Received: 29/07/2013

Respondent: Martin & Kim Drew & Barnes

From 1991 to 2011 WDC population grew by 18% owing to major housing developments at Hatton, Warwick Gates etc. This was mostly cause by immigration not organic growth. Projected growth in the revised plan is 20% in 15 years which is largely based on immigration. On a projection of natural growth following a paper based on 20011 census data written by Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Councillor, Ray Bullen, and making allowances for migration, only 5400 homes are required. What's more, WDC's own figures prepared by G.L. Hearn (December, 2012) provided an economic and demographic forecast a figure of only 4405 new homes.
This figure is further reinforced by employment figures. WDC has very low unemployment at only 1.7%. WDC's figure for housing requirements must therefore be based on major immigration into the area. The 2012 SHMA stated that the overall WD had a very good job-homes balance. As the Gateway project South of Coventry allocates over 1300 jobs for WDC, it seems idiocy to build houses so far from a major area of new employment.
Growth is obviously necessary but not at this excessively high level. In simple terms if more houses are built more people will move here because of its attractiveness. This makes it unattractive due to overdevelopment.
Large housing development will create another soulless commuter estate for Birmingham and Coventry that lacks identity and social cohesion.
G. Renshaw (economist at Warwick University) says that ''estimating housing need in WD involves forecasting migration within the West Midlands including in particular outward migration from Coventry and Birmingham. This is where the methodology becomes completely unsound because migration into WD will depend on the availability of housing in WD and elsewhere so the reasoning is circular- supply creates its own demand.'' This problem actually affects every step of forecasting. Whatever level of housing provision is made by WDC those houses will always be occupied, thereby appearing to validate the forecast.
There is then the entirely separate question of the extent to which WDC should meet national and regional housing need. This depends on a whole host of environmental considerations such as transport links, preserving the green belt etc so there are further circularities in the reasoning here because these factors are also policy variables. It is perfectly reasonable to argue that environmental considerations should be given heavier weight than elsewhere in the region and therefore the appropriate contribution of WD to meeting national need is very small or even zero. The forecast of housing needs has the numerical value that gives it an entirely false precision whereas the environmental factors cannot be quantified.''