The Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research advises that ONS projections be used but the Council is deviating from this advice by not using the latest projections.
The Council should use the 2010 SNPP which shows an increase in sub-national population of 14% from 2011 to 2029. Population increase slows down after 2021. Assuming household sizes are unchanged at 2.35 this translates to 8254 houses. See attachment.

Warwick District already has an above average population density of 4.87 people/Ha compared to an England average of 4.07 people/Ha. This and the fact that 80% of the district is designated green-belt means there is less of a case for building in Warwick District than elsewhere in England.

There is demand for housing in Warwick District but there is also supply; the newspapers are full of adverts for housing for sale or rent each week. The relative supply of housing compared to the rest of England will influence house prices which will in turn adjust demand. This is the simple economics of supply and demand. If more houses are built prices will fall and more people will move into the district from outside. Conversely if houses are removed prices will rise and people will move away from the district. Therefore whatever projection is chosen becomes a self fulfilling prophesy in an liquid property market. Therefore there is no obligation on the Council to meet all demands for housing as people are able to chose whether to live in the district or elsewhere and therefore demand for housing and population growth should not be a factor.