Q-E1.1: Do you think that the HEDNA evidence provides a reasonable basis for identifying future levels of employment need across South Warwickshire?
Following COVID, a significant number of businesses have reduced needs for office accommodation as many people accept offers to work from home, therefore the likely accuracy of demand for future office space is likely to not take this significant shift into account. Based on latest census data, it would be worth reconsidering demands.
The HEDNA is an appropriate starting point for identifying future levels of employment need across South Warwickshire, although there is some concern that the methodology employed underplays the total needs. It is clear from the HEDNA that there are two types of economic need: local and strategic. Whilst it provides a district level breakdown of local office and general industrial need, it does not provide the same for the strategic warehousing and distribution need component and this needs to be addressed.
Yes - and increased focus on added-value employment, especially high-tech, R&D, start-up, science park, eco-campus approach. South Warwickshire has the potential to attract and retain high value businesses - it is essential that the Local Plan not only provides for, but actively encourages this through an intelligent approach to Spatial Growth. This involves providing opportunities for the retention and growth of high value employment in places where businesses want to locate and where employees want to live. The Henley-in-Arden Vision document demonstrates how this can be achieved.
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The HEDNA should be revised using more recent data to better reflect future economic and demographic projections both post-Pandemic and post-Brexit. Data from 2022 is too close to the emergence from the pandemic to provide a reliable trend. Revised data should then be used to inform the choice of spatial growth strategy. This logical ordering does not appear to have been followed in the plan process to date: the HEDNA was published in November 2022 and yet it seems the key direction for the spatial growth strategies were arrived at in September 2022 following the June/July workshops. This clearly places the cart before the horse and calls into question both the reasoning and motivation for publishing options reliant on Green Belt development as a focus for the new local plan proposals.
It seems that employment and population modelling are difficult this close to both brexit and the covid-19 pandemic. Trends will not be a reliable predictor for future growth at this time.
The HEDNA was published in November 2022 and yet it seems the 5 options generated in the spatial growth strategy workshops were arrived at in September 2022. This clearly places the Cart before the Horse and calls into question both the reasoning and motivation for publishing options reliant on greenbelt development as a focus for the new local plan proposals.
The HEDNA could be revised using more recent data to better reflect future economic and demographic projections both post-Pandemic and post-Brexit. 2022 Data is too close to the emergeance from the pandemic to provide a reliable trend. This should them be used to inform the choice and strategy of spatial growth strategy as does not currently appear to be the case.
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Targets should be decided by a strategy that is consistent with maximising quality of life not economic growth.
The marketing undertaken for the DLPDS land at Abbey Park suggests that there is low demand for offices at this particular location. The HEDNA recognises that office floorspace needs are focussed on Coventry and Warwick, which are the main office markets in the sub-region, followed by Stratford-on-Avon. It also recognises that office floorspace delivery has increased in Coventry in recent years, as a result of the Friargate development. It is important that the HEDNA reflect trends in office utilisation and occupation trends following the Covid-19 pandemic. The HEDNA (published in November 2022) recognises that it is too early to identify clearly how increased levels of homeworking and a move towards hybrid working models will affect the requirement for office floorspace. The HEDNA acknowledges, however, that a reduction in office requirement is likely. The 30% reduction applied to the initial analysis for office based requirements will need to be kept under review as of the Local Plan progresses. The trend for lower utilisation and businesses consolidating operations needs to be monitored carefully to ensure that there is not an overprovision of office space. Given the changes being experienced, it is important that the Local Plan support the repurposing of office buildings and land where a lack of demand is evidenced.
Yes, agreed. Note reference in supporting text to “In addition, a proportion of the 709 hectares of strategic B8 employment land (i.e. warehousing and distribution) identified for the wider Coventry and Warwickshire sub-region will also be required.” This also needs to be addressed through the South Warwickshire Local Plan. The Plan should address this issue of sharing the burden across the Coventry and Warwickshire sub-region using the Core Opportunity Areas, Major Investment Sites and the strategic road network within the Plan area (see comments on Issue E7) as appropriate.
This logical ordering does not appear to have been followed in the plan process to date: the HEDNA was published in November 2022 and yet it seems the key direction for the spatial growth strategies were decided in September 2022 following the June/July workshops. This places the cart before the horse and calls into question both the reasoning and motivation for publishing options reliant on Green Belt development as a focus for the new local plan proposals. The HEDNA should use more recent data to reflect better future economic and demographic projections both post-Pandemic and post-Brexit. Revised data should then be used to inform the choice of spatial growth strategy.
The housing and economic needs analysis seems to have been finished after the spatial growth consultation workshops. How can they therefore possible have informed the workshop discussions resulting is such a farcical list of options?
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Q-E1.1:• We have great concern that the HEDNA assumptions and projections are too heavily based on past performance and take insufficient note (or no note at all) of structural changes to the economy that will have a profound effect on Coventry and a knock on effect on South Warwickshire. The major structural change to which we refer is the banning of the sale of all combustion motor vehicles from 2030. • The HEDNA report identifies that Gross Value Added (GVA) in Coventry and Warwickshire is £26,869m, of which motor vehicle manufacturing is £2,949m, 9.7%. With the inclusion of indirect suppliers, the impact of motor vehicle manufacturing will be greater still. • The report assumes overall GVA growth of 1.4% up to 2043, with manufacturing also forecast to grow by the same amount. The report identifies motor vehicles as a particular strength and states that manufacturing GVA is expected to be driven by the automotive sector. • No recognition is made of the massive uncertainty that exists due to the need for motor manufacturing to transition to electric vehicles. There are far less components required for an electric vehicle, which will have a huge impact on the component supply industry and the machine tool sector in the area, together with the engine plant in North Warwickshire. There is massive uncertainty over the possible development of the Coventry Airport site as a giga battery plant. No investors have been forthcoming to date. In the light of this uncertainty, will Jaguar Land Rover commit to the large scale manufacturing of electric vehicles in the area? • At best, employment in the area will suffer from the reduced demand for motor vehicle components and at worst a whole industry could be lost. Q-E1.2:• The Local Plan should focus on specific challenges that the area is facing in making its employment projections. Different scenarios should be modelled for the level of motor vehicle manufacture and related support activities that may exist in the area, with assessment made on which option is most likely, with the implications of this fed into the assessment of housing need.
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Of course if you build houses people will need employment but shouldn't this have been thought about before you built 6k new houses with almost zero employment land near Bishops Tachbrook? The housing developments should have been alongside not as well as employment land.
But important to give consideration, in Stratford Upon Avon in particular, that the risk of poor infrastructure not being sufficient to support a growing population may mean a reduction in visitors to Stratford upon Avon and therefore less available jobs in the town.
Detailed comments on Employment Needs are set out in CPRE's submitted report on Housing and Employment Land Needs. In the case of offices (B1 use class) we consider the need should be reduced to reflect the lower office requirements observed since the COVID pandemic with estimates suggesting a 30% reduction in floorspace requirements. This would be in line with sensitivity work within the HEDNA. In the case of Industrial Land, the need is largely driven by past completions. The HEDNA assesses these across the whole Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) which comprises the same area as the HMA - Coventry and all 5 Districts of Warwickshire. It then breaks it down into local authorities. As a result, previous large developments can skew the results, and this may explain why Stratford-on-Avon in particular has such a high calculated need. Further work should be undertaken with other authorities in Warwickshire to consider whether this distribution should be adjusted and whether it matches supply across the FEMA. Allied to the comments about Industrial Land the HEDNA identifies a very large level of large scale (B8) Logistics Provision across the FEMA. This is based on analysis which is liable to accentuate the need, for example, double counting road and rail, adding large amounts of contingency. Most importantly it assumes a high replacement rate of existing sites, some of which will not remain as logistics provision. While this may not directly impact on the SWLP area, which has relatively little B8 floorspace (compared to Rugby and North Warwickshire) it creates additional (potentially double-counted) supply which may help address industrial land needs (B2 use class) across the FEMA and so reduce pressure on the SWLP area. It should finally be noted that the current Issues and Options paper does not include any breakdown of existing supply (as opposed to allocations in the existing plans) so CPRE is not in a position at this stage to say whether, and to what extent, the current over-estimate of need is significant as we do not know how easily it can be met on existing allocations or new non-controversial sites.
For detailed comments see Barton Willmore, now Stantec, letter dated 6 March 2023 and email dated 6 March 2023 with enclosures. Additional comments as follows: Whilst we suggest that more up to date evidence is needed and will be subject to more detailed review as the SWLP develop. However, we welcome the data provided to date which identifies a clear need to plan effectively for employment growth. The HEDNA provides details of the market needs and uses different data in order to anticipate office, industrial and warehousing net land needs until 2050. The HEDNA concludes that in the round the labour demand models best represent future needs for office floorspace (paragraph 11.3) the findings for Stratford on Avon are summarised in the following tables: Summary of Labour Demand – Net Land Needs 2021 – 2041 ha. (Table 9.4) Offices Stratford on Avon 5.2 Total 30.3 Summary of Labour Demand – Net Land Needs 2021-50 ha. (Table 9.5) Offices Stratford on Avon 7.2 Total 42.0 The above show that there is a need for offices in Stratford on Avon and a significant need across the region as a whole. In addition these offices will need to be high quality and meet occupiers needs. In terms of industrial and warehousing space, Paragraph 11.10 states that the completions data is likely to be the best representation of market needs for the next phase of plan making, particularly for the short/medium-term. For 2021-41 this equates to a need of 132.9 ha. for Stratford on Avon and 1029.8 ha. total need (see Table 9.12). For 2021 – 50 there is a forecast need of 192.7 ha. for Stratford on Avon and total need of 1493.2 ha. (see Table 9.13). The HEDNA also notes that consultation suggests that B8 demand is very strong, and that there is a need for separate allocations for B1c/B2 where land is delineated from sites going for B8 in order to support the manufacturing sector. There is a strong manufacturing sector in the sub-region which needs to be provided for (paragraph 11.11). Overall there is a need for employment floorspace across all three sectors, the site at Southam would be able to assist in meeting this need. We would welcome discussions with Officers as to the role that the site can play in meeting growth objectives.
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