Helping Shape the District

(13) Three possible future scenarios

We have set out three scenarios for how the district and your local area might change over the next 15 years as a result of different levels of future development. We want you to consider which scenario best addresses the issues that are important to you.

(11) Scenario one is the lowest level of new development and investment that would be realistic. This option would limit any new development to the levels that we have had during the recent recession. It would only allow development of land that already has permission for building works, and of redundant or vacant land and buildings within the towns and villages.

(8) Scenario two is a level of new development and investment which is halfway between scenarios one and three. This would see new development return to the levels we had in the later part of the last decade, before the recession.

(20) Scenario three is the highest level of new development and investment that would be realistic. This scenario would return levels of new development to the levels we had during the economic growth in the early part of the last decade which is considered the maximum level likely to be achieved. It would meet forecasts of the amount of new development needed in the future to support the economy, and projections for the district’s housing needs based on population and household growth.

We have explained why we picked each of the three scenarios in the technical background paper published separately. We have also checked each of these options against a number of sustainability objectives and have also reported this in the technical background paper.

It’s not just the amount of new development that is important – encouraging and enabling the right types of new homes and jobs in the right place is also important in dealing with the issues facing the district. We will discuss these matters with you at a later stage as we prepare the new local plan.

The following table will help you consider each scenario. It sets out how each scenario might contribute towards tackling the important issues.

Which of these scenarios do you think best address the issues?