5.6 District Wide Transport Mitigation Proposals

1) I am not aware of the STIRR campaign flows for 1971. However we do monitor flows at WCC and have reliable records using Automatic Traffic Count equipment. I have attached a plan showing site locations and the flow data which shows the peak period has remained fairly static but the shoulder peaks(0700-0800,0900-100,1600-1700 and 1800-1900) have grown, in some cases significantly. As the road network continues to become more congested this growth in the shoulder peaks will continue to occur at an increasing rate. I would also expect that the growth in housing provision during the period presented in this peak spreading evidence to be less than that proposed in the new Local Plan, WDC would have to confirm this. There may not have been material change in the traditional peak, due to the finite capacity of the road network in central Warwick. However this does not mean that there is the same level of congestion and impact on journey times. There is an increased demand for road space and this is spilling over into the shoulder peak periods, the requirement to cater for other road users through provision of crossing facilities at signals compounds this issue.

2) The areas identified as suffering from delay are the same areas that suffer today. I have not seen the document produced by the Warwick Society. However I do know that the WCC/ARUP Strategic Transport Assessment compared Local Plan growth against 2028 Reference Conditions (i.e. DfT Growth levels are applied proportionally across the network rather that allocated to certain areas, as is recognised practice in this type of assessment) and therefore a comparison is not made against today's conditions. It should be noted that the delay does increase in the peak as a result of the growth but maybe not to the extent that the public fear due to the finite capacity of the road network and the public's propensity to re-time there journey, avoid journeys and use alternative modes. It is the shoulder peak periods which we experience the most significant growth. MS002 plot included in the latest Strategic Transport Assessment on the WDC website which shows predictions for the 2028 Ref Case this will help in a comparison, in the town centre there doesn't appear to be a substantial worsening of conditions. I have also attached modelled and observed congestion data taken form 2011 (Observed based on DfT NI 167 data derived from satellite navigation devices) which highlight the existing congestion hotspots.

3) This is correct in terms of flow for the traditional 0800-0900 and 1700-1800 peak periods but not congestion for the aforementioned reasons. i.e. peak spreading resulting in growth at other times, meaning a higher total delay over a longer period which has a knock on impact on the overall levels of congestion - delay and journey times, compounded by the provision for pedestrian movements at signals and crossing. Furthermore, the propensity for some trips to travel within the peak hour is inevitable and, as such there will undoubtedly be an impact within the traditional peak hours. This growth is almost inevitable regardless of the approach to the allocation of development across the district. The delivery of the mitigation schemes in the area of the town centre is intended to alleviate some of the impacts of these trips which, if not successfully mitigated, could have the potential to cause severe impacts within the town centre. The purpose of the proposed schemes is to minimise the potential for these impacts to occur.

4) I do not have figures on how air pollution has changed over the years in Warwick, this is not my area of expertise. Air pollution is attributable to both traffic levels and the speed at which the traffic moves. During the peak period traffic is moving slower but levels may not have increased significantly, this trend continues through the local plan period. Additionally the growth in traffic flows and levels of delay in the shoulder peak periods does grow significantly and this will also add to the pollution issues within the AQMA. Again, public perception may well be that the impacts will be greater than the evidence suggests. One point worth noting is that without the improvements in Warwick Town Centre outlined within the STA, the impacts on delay are significantly worse, as such the air pollution will be considerably more. The potential for congestion levels to get much worse is limited during the peak period since the congestion itself is an indicator of a section of network reaching capacity. Growth in traffic will worsen conditions in the AQMA to a point and then the network will be saturated and air quality will decline substantially. The introduction of schemes reduces the rate at which the decline in air quality is occurring. Furthermore, as cars improve and become more environmentally friendly it could be argued that the quality of the environment within the AQMA is likely to be as much a function of the vehicle fleet therein as it is the levels of growth.

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